Cibus, Inc. (CBUS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 revenue of $1.21M declined sequentially from Q3 ($1.67M), while net loss improved materially YoY due to the absence of goodwill impairment; EPS was $(0.87) versus $(7.63) in Q3, reflecting the prior quarter’s $181.4M impairment charge rather than underlying operational deterioration .
• Liquidity: year-end cash was $14.4M; with ~$21.4M–$21.6M January 2025 net proceeds and cost actions, management extended runway to late Q3 2025 (previously late Q1 2025 in Q3) — a clear positive on financing cadence, though funding needs remain a visible overhang .
• Commercial and regulatory momentum: four rice customers with germplasm in-house and successful US field trials (including stacked HT traits), UK PSR trials progressed, and EU NGT trilogue advancement plus California approval for gene-edited rice field research increase medium-term commercialization odds and TAM unlock potential .
• 2025 milestones are execution-heavy (HT2 field data in canola in Q3’25; additional sclerotinia MOA data; soybean platform progress), with nominal 2025 biofragrance revenues and more meaningful 2026 contribution targeted, providing incremental non-trait revenue optionality .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Regulatory catalysts: EU Council mandate enabling trilogue on New Genomic Techniques (NGTs) and California Rice Commission approval for gene-edited rice field research bolster commercialization pathways and customer engagement .
  • Rice commercialization setup: four seed company agreements, germplasm received from all, and successful US field trials, including what the company believes are the first stacked gene-edited herbicide tolerance field results in rice .
  • Pipeline execution: fourth MOA edits for sclerotinia in canola completed with additional positive data emerging; AI-powered gene discovery partnership (Biographica) enhances target discovery and speeds trait development .

• What Went Wrong

  • Revenue remains de minimis and declined sequentially (Q4 $1.21M vs Q3 $1.67M), highlighting the pre-revenue nature of the trait licensing model and dependence on milestone/royalty timing .
  • Cash burn and financing needs: despite extended runway to late Q3’25, management still anticipates raising capital before/around Q3 to sustain milestones — a continuing overhang for equity holders .
  • Prior impairments underscore valuation resets: Q3’s $181.4M goodwill impairment and Q4 prior-year comparison affected optics of losses and EPS, reinforcing the need for visible commercial revenue inflection .

Financial Results

• Notes: Management also disclosed R&D $12.4M, SG&A $6.8M, and Q4 net loss $25.8M in the press release narrative, consistent with the statements .

KPIs and Operational Highlights

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “The opportunities for our gene-edited traits aren’t years away – they are materializing now...With the regulatory environment...making significant positive progress, including especially in the EU, I believe we are positioned to capture significant value for our shareholders.” — Peter Beetham, Interim CEO .
• “Our proprietary RTDS gene editing process...enables us to edit a customer's elite germplasm and return it with a specific trait in under 12 months, creating a time bound and predictable model for trait development and commercialization.” — Peter Beetham .
• “Including our agreement with FEDEARROZ, we now have agreements with 4 major rice seed companies...we have received germplasm from each...completed a successful series of U.S. field trials...” — Peter Beetham .
• “The EU Council’s negotiation mandate...is central to harmonizing the global regulatory landscape...most gene edited plants will be regulated in a similar way to conventional breeding.” — Peter Beetham .

Q&A Highlights

• EU framework implications: Management emphasized the EU NGT trilogue as a catalyst for cultivation/trade clarity and customer acceleration; patent transparency amendments seen as supportive for IP clarity .
• Commercial timelines: HT2 and sclerotinia in canola are “on track” with 2025 a pivotal year; HT2 canola field data expected Q3’25; EU momentum may accelerate customer plans, but pod shatter revenue timing unchanged (2026–2028 window) .
• Liquidity/funding: After January raise (> $20M), cost reduction programs, and burn improvements, runway extends to late Q3’25; further funding likely before then to sustain milestones .
• Sustainable ingredients: Nominal revenues targeted in 2025; management “comfortable” expecting 2026 revenues for biofragrance, indicating a measured ramp .
• European pipeline: Active engagement with European WOSR customers (five) and wheat platform established; potential to extend to barley via partnerships .

Estimates Context

• We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 (and prior quarters) revenue and EPS but were unable to access due to an S&P Global daily request limit. As a result, we cannot provide a beat/miss assessment versus Wall Street for this quarter. If you’d like, we can refresh and pull consensus after the limit resets.
• Company did not provide quantitative revenue/EPS guidance; estimate revisions are likely to be driven by regulatory catalysts, 2025 data milestones (HT2 canola; sclerotinia MOAs), and liquidity developments .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Near-term catalysts skew regulatory and data-driven: EU NGT trilogue progress, California rice research approval, 2025 HT2 canola field data, and additional sclerotinia MOA readouts could expand TAM and de-risk the pipeline .
• Commercial pathway in rice is firming: four customers, germplasm in-house, and positive field trials (including stacked HT) set up potential royalty streams as traits move to commercialization with partners .
• Liquidity improved but not solved: runway extended to late Q3’25; plan for additional capital likely pre-Q3 — monitor capital structure actions and potential strategic alternatives as the Board evaluates options .
• Operating discipline: SG&A and R&D trended down sequentially in Q4; $10M annualized savings and ~20% burn reduction support a more capital-efficient model into key 2025–2026 milestones .
• Diversification via sustainable ingredients: nominal 2025 and targeted 2026 biofragrance revenues offer incremental non-trait revenue optionality that could modestly offset burn pre-royalties .
• Stock reaction sensitivity: Shares likely to respond to (1) EU NGT legislative progress, (2) additional rice/canola customer updates and field data, and (3) funding cadence/terms — with execution against 2025 milestones the primary driver of estimate recalibration and narrative shift .